ASBURY PARK, N.J. -- In the end, it looks like the U.S. Senate race might not have been a referendum on anything.
Republican nominee Steve Lonegan said since June the election would turn on voters' disapproval of President Barack Obama and the health care exchanges that debuted 16 days ago. But attention to that rollout has been swamped by concerns about the partial federal shutdown — which enabled Democratic nominee Cory Booker to frame the race, instead, as a referendum on the tea party.
STORY: N.J. Senate campaign also may be national referendum
Maybe neither resonated. Maybe they canceled each other out. But the election turned out to be a pro forma New Jersey affair — with the Republican keeping things interesting by making a run in the polls and the Democrat prevailing in a reliably blue state, as the party has in every Senate race for the last 40 years.
"We're looking at a base election. This is really what it boils down to. And, in New Jersey, a base election is won by a Democrat," said Monmouth University political scientist Patrick Murray. "There really was very little in any of the polling that suggested independents were splitting one way or the other."
Nearly 33 percent of New Jersey's registered voters are Democrats, compared with 20 percent who are registered as Republicans, a gaping difference of 705,000.
"Even if they don't show up in as great a number as Republicans, you're still looking at a significant advantage for any Democrat running statewide. And both of these candidates played toward their base," Murray said.
For Lonegan, that meant an emphasis on spending cuts and the rising national debt, which is approaching $17 billion. He aligned himself with the segment of the Republican Party that advocated for the recent shutdown and said it — and particularly, the GOP's backbone in battling Obama — would be a key issue in the race.
"Its only national implication that I can see is that the government shutdown is hurting Republicans," Seton Hall University political scientist Matthew Hale said of the results.
He pointed to results of a new Rutgers-Eagleton Poll released Wednesday that indicated 52 percent of registered voters said the government shutdown is more the fault of Republicans. Twenty percent say everyone is to blame, while 19 percent blamed Obama. The poll also showed just 21 percent of registered New Jersey voters had a favorable opinion about the tea party, compared with 55 percent who had an unfavorable opinion.
"I don't know if that hadn't happened that Lonegan would have ever caught up, but I know it stopped any momentum that he had. People blamed him because he's a Republican and one who would support the shutdown," Hale said.
Teaneck resident Glenda Hadnott was among those voting for Booker — both because she likes him and dislikes the direction of Congress.
"With everything that's going on, I do not want to see another Republican in there. I don't feel the Republicans care about the middle class and poor. I am not going to send another Republican to Washington," Hadnott said. "Besides, I love Cory Booker."
Another Teaneck resident, Michael Diehl, voted for Lonegan because of his support for spending cuts and gun rights.
He said the shutdown "was a necessary thing — if that's what it takes to get them to stop spending down in Washington."
"The current administration that we have in Washington is very socialist. I don't think that's what our forefathers had in mind, framing the Constitution," Diehl said.
Stephanie Ziemba, running as a Republican candidate for Assembly in the heavily Democratic 19th Legislative District, which includes Woodbridge, Sayreville, Carteret and the Amboys, said she hoped Lonegan scored more points on his intent to reduce government spending than Booker did with New Jersey-centric issues such as marriage equality.
"Steve did a lot of campaigning when Booker was out of state, in Hollywood or wherever he was, and I think what he said about his priorities did get through," Ziemba said.
For Booker, the margin of victory wasn't as impressive as some analysts expected when the race got under way — in part because of a light campaign schedule that included a weeklong fundraising trip to California, as well as questions about his severance payments from his former law firm and affiliation with a well-connected Internet startup.
Booker faces the immediate task of running for re-election for a full six-year term in 2014. His win Wednesday will allow him to complete the final 14 months, approximately, of the late U.S. Sen. Frank Lautenberg's term.
"Basically, there was a lot of doubt about Booker's motives that kept a lot of those less-frequent, less-tuned-in, less-partisan voters away from this race," Murray said. "And so Booker needs to take a lesson from this. A double-digit win is still a double-digit win, but it was still nowhere near the kind of win that the underlying dynamics suggested should happen and that he was to work harder to prove to New Jerseyans that he is in it to serve them."
SOURCE : http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2013/10/17/nj-senate-race-not-national-referendum/2999593/
Republican nominee Steve Lonegan said since June the election would turn on voters' disapproval of President Barack Obama and the health care exchanges that debuted 16 days ago. But attention to that rollout has been swamped by concerns about the partial federal shutdown — which enabled Democratic nominee Cory Booker to frame the race, instead, as a referendum on the tea party.
STORY: N.J. Senate campaign also may be national referendum
Maybe neither resonated. Maybe they canceled each other out. But the election turned out to be a pro forma New Jersey affair — with the Republican keeping things interesting by making a run in the polls and the Democrat prevailing in a reliably blue state, as the party has in every Senate race for the last 40 years.
"We're looking at a base election. This is really what it boils down to. And, in New Jersey, a base election is won by a Democrat," said Monmouth University political scientist Patrick Murray. "There really was very little in any of the polling that suggested independents were splitting one way or the other."
Nearly 33 percent of New Jersey's registered voters are Democrats, compared with 20 percent who are registered as Republicans, a gaping difference of 705,000.
"Even if they don't show up in as great a number as Republicans, you're still looking at a significant advantage for any Democrat running statewide. And both of these candidates played toward their base," Murray said.
For Lonegan, that meant an emphasis on spending cuts and the rising national debt, which is approaching $17 billion. He aligned himself with the segment of the Republican Party that advocated for the recent shutdown and said it — and particularly, the GOP's backbone in battling Obama — would be a key issue in the race.
"Its only national implication that I can see is that the government shutdown is hurting Republicans," Seton Hall University political scientist Matthew Hale said of the results.
He pointed to results of a new Rutgers-Eagleton Poll released Wednesday that indicated 52 percent of registered voters said the government shutdown is more the fault of Republicans. Twenty percent say everyone is to blame, while 19 percent blamed Obama. The poll also showed just 21 percent of registered New Jersey voters had a favorable opinion about the tea party, compared with 55 percent who had an unfavorable opinion.
"I don't know if that hadn't happened that Lonegan would have ever caught up, but I know it stopped any momentum that he had. People blamed him because he's a Republican and one who would support the shutdown," Hale said.
Teaneck resident Glenda Hadnott was among those voting for Booker — both because she likes him and dislikes the direction of Congress.
"With everything that's going on, I do not want to see another Republican in there. I don't feel the Republicans care about the middle class and poor. I am not going to send another Republican to Washington," Hadnott said. "Besides, I love Cory Booker."
Another Teaneck resident, Michael Diehl, voted for Lonegan because of his support for spending cuts and gun rights.
He said the shutdown "was a necessary thing — if that's what it takes to get them to stop spending down in Washington."
"The current administration that we have in Washington is very socialist. I don't think that's what our forefathers had in mind, framing the Constitution," Diehl said.
Stephanie Ziemba, running as a Republican candidate for Assembly in the heavily Democratic 19th Legislative District, which includes Woodbridge, Sayreville, Carteret and the Amboys, said she hoped Lonegan scored more points on his intent to reduce government spending than Booker did with New Jersey-centric issues such as marriage equality.
"Steve did a lot of campaigning when Booker was out of state, in Hollywood or wherever he was, and I think what he said about his priorities did get through," Ziemba said.
For Booker, the margin of victory wasn't as impressive as some analysts expected when the race got under way — in part because of a light campaign schedule that included a weeklong fundraising trip to California, as well as questions about his severance payments from his former law firm and affiliation with a well-connected Internet startup.
Booker faces the immediate task of running for re-election for a full six-year term in 2014. His win Wednesday will allow him to complete the final 14 months, approximately, of the late U.S. Sen. Frank Lautenberg's term.
"Basically, there was a lot of doubt about Booker's motives that kept a lot of those less-frequent, less-tuned-in, less-partisan voters away from this race," Murray said. "And so Booker needs to take a lesson from this. A double-digit win is still a double-digit win, but it was still nowhere near the kind of win that the underlying dynamics suggested should happen and that he was to work harder to prove to New Jerseyans that he is in it to serve them."
SOURCE : http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2013/10/17/nj-senate-race-not-national-referendum/2999593/
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